Microsoft CTO predicts AI will generate 95% of code by 2030
Microsoft CTO Kevin Scott believes that by 2030, 95 percent of programming code will be generated by AI. He emphasized that this shift does not mean the elimination of human input in software engineering. Scott's prediction highlights the increasing role of AI in coding tasks. It also underscores the need for developers to adapt and embrace these changes in the industry. The future of programming may see a significant integration of AI technologies.
The big picture: The future of computer programming is facing a seismic shift driven by advances in artificial intelligence. Industry leaders have contrasting perspectives on how AI will reshape software development, with predictions ranging from transformative to cautious.
Microsoft's Optimistic Outlook
One Microsoft executive has a more optimistic outlook, forecasting AI's dominance in coding within the next five years. Microsoft CTO Kevin Scott predicted that 95 percent of programming code will be AI-generated by 2030. However, he quickly clarified that this does not signal the end of human involvement in software engineering.
"It doesn't mean that the AI is doing the software engineering job ... authorship is still going to be human," Scott explained. "It creates another layer of abstraction [as] we go from being an input master (programming languages) to a prompt master (AI orchestrator)." He doesn't believe AI will replace developers, but it will fundamentally change their workflows.
Instead of painstakingly writing every line of code, engineers will increasingly rely on AI tools to generate code based on prompts and instructions. In this new paradigm, developers will focus on guiding AI systems rather than programming computers manually. By articulating their needs through prompts, engineers will allow AI to handle much of the repetitive work, freeing them to concentrate on higher-level tasks like design and problem-solving.
Limitations and Future Prospects
Despite its promise, current AI systems have significant limitations – particularly their ability to retain memory. Scott acknowledged that today's AI assistants are "awfully transactional," meaning they struggle to recall past interactions or adapt to user preferences over time. However, he believes this is a temporary issue.
Scott predicts that future AI tools will offer more personalized and context-aware assistance as they learn from previous interactions. "In the places where agents have memory – it is limited," the CTO said. "Memory is going to get a lot better over the next year."
Industry Perspectives
A debate over AI's role in programming is occurring throughout the industry. IBM CEO Arvind Krishna weighed in at the SXSW conference with a more measured outlook. Krishna argued that AI will enhance productivity rather than replace programmers outright. He estimated that AI would handle about 20 to 30 percent of coding tasks but emphasized its limitations in tackling more complex challenges.
Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff agrees with Krishna on reskilling workers for an AI-driven future. Benioff has suggested that his company may stop hiring traditional engineers in 2025 due to productivity gains enabled by AI tools but stressed the importance of human expertise in collaborating with these technologies.
Meanwhile, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has offered a prediction similar to Scott's but with a far more aggressive timeline. He believes AI could generate up to 90 percent of code within six months – a speed that underscores how rapidly these tools are advancing.